Written by Kellen PA staff, the Capitol Compass is a monthly newsletter offered to clients as a Kellen product. Read the Special Edition Shutdown Showdown Update below.
Disclaimer: Many of the developments discussed below are fluid and may change rapidly. The information is relevant and accurate as of 9 AM November 13, 2025
November 13, 2025
Shutdown Update: Government Reopens After Enactment of H.R. 5371
On Wednesday night, the House of Representatives approved the Senate-passed version of H.R. 5371, the Continuing Appropriations and Extensions Act, and the President signed it immediately. The bill officially ends the government shutdown and extends several key programs and authorities into 2026. The legislation includes both short-term government funding and full-year FY26 appropriations for a select group of agencies. It also renews several critical health-care provisions that expired on October 1.
Key Provisions in the Final Package
Program extensions (through January 30, 2026):
- Medicare telehealth authorities restored after expiring on October 1, 2025
- GPCI work floor extended to maintain geographic payment stability
- Acute Hospital Care at Home waiver extended without interruption
Full-year FY26 appropriations (through September 30, 2026):
- Military Construction–VA
- Agriculture–FDA
- Legislative Branch
Short-term CR for remaining agencies:
- Federal departments not included in the three full-year bills are funded through January 30, 2026
Impact on Federal Operations
Effective immediately:
- Shutdown ends; agencies begin reopening
- Furloughed employees will receive guaranteed back pay
- Reductions-in-Force (RIFs) remain paused through January
- OMB will issue guidance for orderly restart of operations
Why the Package Passed Now
- A bipartisan Senate coalition, seven Democrats and one Independent, joined Republicans in pushing to reopen government immediately
- Senate leaders offered a commitment to hold a December vote on ACA premium tax credits, helping unify support
- With military pay already protected under prior law, the next pressure point was the imminent missed paychecks for civilian federal workers
- The House accepted the Senate’s package without amendments to avoid further delay
What Happens Next
- Agencies will take 1–2 business days to fully restore operations
- Congressional focus now shifts to the December ACA tax credit vote, the January 30 funding deadline for remaining agencies, and potential negotiations on long-term telehealth and other health program extensions
November 12, 2025
Shutdown Update: Where Things Stand on H.R. 5371
The Senate has passed a bipartisan Continuing Resolution (CR) that includes full-year funding for key accounts and creates a clear path to reopen the government quickly. The House’s decision this week will determine whether the shutdown ends immediately or extends several more days. The Senate package guarantees back pay, pauses RIFs, and provides full-year stability for WIC, SNAP, VA, and core legislative operations.
Where Things Stand
- The Senate passed H.R. 5371, the Continuing Appropriations and Extensions Act, 60–40, sending the amended package to the House.
- The bill funds most agencies through January 30, 2026, and fully funds three FY26 appropriations bills: Military Construction–VA, Agriculture–FDA, and Legislative Branch.
Why the CR Cleared the Senate
- Seven Democrats and one Independent crossed the aisle, citing the need to reopen government immediately while securing a separate December vote on extending the enhanced ACA premium tax credits.
- Senate leadership permitted a pre-passage amendment vote, which helped resolve internal process concerns.
What’s in the Package
- Short-term CR plus full-year funding for FY26 MilCon-VA, Agriculture–FDA, and Legislative Branch.
- Added resources for Capitol security.
- Guaranteed back pay for furloughed workers.
- Temporary pause on further reductions-in-force (RIFs) through January.
The ACA ‘Handshake’
- Majority Leader Thune committed to scheduling a vote in December on ACA premium tax credits.
- No parallel commitment from House leadership, which continues to drive House Democratic skepticism.
House Outlook
- The House has called members back this week to consider the Senate amendment.
- The House is spending Wednesday afternoon (11/12) debating and then voting on whether to approve the Senate’s government funding deal.
- The first votes will likely happen around 5:10 p.m., and the last votes should wrap up by about 7:15 p.m.
- House Democrats are currently opposed absent ACA provisions, suggesting a narrow Republican-led path to passage.
Path to Ending the Shutdown
- House votes on the Senate amendment.
- If the House accepts the Senate version as-is → Bill moves to enrollment → Presented to the President.
- If the House modifies the bill → It returns to the Senate → Extends timeline and procedural steps.
- President Trump has indicated he will sign the Senate package.
Timing Scenarios
Fastest Path
- House passes the Senate amendment mid-week.
- Enrollment and signature follow shortly.
- Agencies restart operations within 1–2 business days.
Longer Path
- House amendments require Senate reconsideration.
- Additional delays possible depending on procedural hurdles.
Implications for Agencies & Stakeholders
- Upon enactment:
- Back pay processed.
- Furloughed staff recalled.
- RIF pause remains in effect through January.
- OMB will issue restart guidance.
- WIC, SNAP, VA health care/benefits, and core Legislative Branch functions receive full-year certainty through FY26.
November 7, 2025
Overview
The federal government shutdown has now stretched into its 38th day, surpassing previous records and deepening the strain on agencies, contractors, and the broader economy. Despite a handful of procedural talks between Senate and House leadership, no agreement has been reached to reopen the government. Negotiations remain centered on spending caps, Medicaid funding, and the Affordable Care Act premium subsidies scheduled to expire next year. Hill insiders now anticipate the shutdown could continue until the week of November 17, when combined political and fiscal pressure from missed paychecks, court slowdowns, and delayed reimbursements is expected to reach a tipping point.
Developments This Week
- The Senate’s attempt to advance a bipartisan mini Continuing Resolution (CR) focused on restoring civilian pay stalled after fiscal conservatives objected to including temporary Medicaid protections.
- The House remains in recess except for brief pro forma sessions, which are short, symbolic meetings held to technically keep Congress in session. Speaker Johnson faces mounting pressure from both moderate Republicans and business groups to bring the Senate’s proposal to a vote.
- Behind the scenes, centrists in both chambers are drafting a narrow bridge measure through Thanksgiving, though no text has been released.
- The White House budget team has begun preparing revised OMB guidance for a prolonged shutdown, signaling they do not expect a near-term deal.
Agency and Workforce Impacts
- More than 800,000 civilian employees have now missed three full pay cycles, with morale and attrition worsening across departments.
- Multiple agencies, including EPA, HUD, and Commerce, have moved from furloughs to formal Reduction-in-Force (RIF) actions targeting contractors and grant-supported staff.
- NIH and CDC continue to report halted research projects and delayed clinical-trial reviews, while the FDA has suspended several non-emergency inspections.
- The federal judiciary entered contingency operations on November 4, curtailing non-essential court activities and limiting new case filings.
- Employee unions organized coordinated demonstrations this week outside the Capitol and regional hubs, marking the first sustained protest wave since the shutdown began.
Economic and Operational Toll
- Economists now estimate the shutdown’s cost at over $700 million per day, with GDP projections for Q4 revised downward by 0.3 percentage points.
- Federal contractors and small businesses in Maryland, Virginia, and Alabama continue to experience acute cash-flow issues as contract payments remain frozen.
- Hospitals and nursing facilities report worsening Medicare and Medicaid reimbursement delays, creating budget stress across provider networks.
- TSA callouts and air-traffic staffing gaps increased significantly this week, resulting in delays at major airports.
- The tourism and hospitality sectors now estimate cumulative revenue losses above $3 billion nationwide since the shutdown’s start.
Impact Calendar — Key Dates Ahead
| Date | Event / Watchpoint |
| Fri, Nov. 7 | Third missed civilian paycheck; expanded furloughs and layoffs expected |
| Week of Nov. 10 | Possible Senate test vote on mini CR restoring limited agency funding |
| Fri, Nov. 15 | Contractor RIF notices reach full implementation phase |
| Week of Nov. 17 | Anticipated political inflection point as agencies face insolvency in working-capital funds |
| Wed, Nov. 26 | Tentative target for Thanksgiving-week short-term bridge proposal if talks progress |
Political Outlook
- Senate Democrats remain unified on including Medicaid and premium-subsidy extensions in any reopening measure.
- House Republicans are split between a small bloc open to a short-term CR and a larger group demanding permanent domestic-spending cuts.
- Moderate caucuses, including the Problem Solvers Caucus and Senate Common Ground Coalition, have circulated frameworks that could reopen portions of the government while negotiations continue.
- The White House maintains it will not accept piecemeal agency bills without health-policy protections, even as pressure builds from governors and industry leaders.
Takeaway
The shutdown’s persistence is shifting from a political standoff to a structural crisis with compounding economic damage. Agencies are now entering uncharted territory, moving from temporary furlough management to permanent staffing reductions and halted programs. Unless an agreement materializes by mid-November, ripple effects across public health, defense contracting, and the national workforce will intensify into the winter months. Organizations should plan for continued disruption through at least mid-to-late November, maintain open communication with federal partners, and document any shutdown-related delays affecting grants, contracts, or reimbursement flows.
9 AM October 31, 2025
Overview
The federal government shutdown has now entered its 31st day, making it one of the longest in modern history. Despite scattered talks between Congressional leadership and the White House, no clear path to reopening has emerged. The impasse continues to center on spending caps, Medicaid funding levels, and the expiration of Affordable Care Act premium subsidies, with both sides holding firm to their respective demands
Growing bipartisan concern about the economic fallout has not yet translated into legislative movement, and many on Capitol Hill now expect the shutdown to extend at least into mid-November absent a dramatic political shift.
Developments This Week
- The Senate failed yet again to pass competing funding proposals. A Republican measure to temporarily fund defense and homeland security while cutting domestic spending fell short at 55–45, with only a handful of cross-party votes.
- A Democratic “clean” continuing resolution (CR) to fund the full government through December 20 also failed to reach the 60-vote threshold.
The House remains in recess except for brief pro forma sessions, which are short, symbolic meetings held to technically keep Congress in session. Speaker Johnson continues to resist calls to bring the Senate’s proposals to the floor. Behind closed doors, moderate lawmakers in both chambers are exploring a narrow stopgap focused on civilian pay and contracting relief, though leadership has not yet endorsed the idea.
Agency and Workforce Impacts
The shutdown’s toll on the federal workforce is escalating:
- Over 800,000 civilian employees have now missed two full pay periods.
- Furloughs are shifting to layoffs, with several agencies preparing formal Reduction-in-Force (RIF) notices for contractors whose funding has lapsed.
- The federal judiciary has warned it will exhaust reserve funds within days, forcing suspension of non-essential court functions.
- NIH and CDC report disruptions to grant reviews, clinical trials, and public health surveillance activities.
Federal employee unions are staging rolling demonstrations across Washington, D.C., and major regional hubs, adding visible political pressure ahead of the November 4 pay cycle.
Economic and Operational Toll
Economists now estimate the shutdown is costing the U.S. economy over $600 million per day, with downstream impacts on growth, consumer spending, and housing stability.
- Federal contractors and small businesses in Maryland, Virginia, and Alabama are reporting cash-flow crises.
- Hospitals and nursing facilities have begun to experience Medicare and Medicaid payment delays, as CMS administrative staff remain on furlough.
- Air travel delays and TSA staffing shortages are rising as unpaid employees call out.
- Tourism and hospitality sectors are experiencing losses exceeding $2 billion nationwide since the shutdown began.
Impact Calendar — Key Dates Ahead
| Date | Event / Watchpoint |
| Fri, Oct. 31 | Federal agencies begin implementing formal RIF procedures and broader contract cancellations if no funding enacted |
| Sat, Nov. 1 | ACA Open Enrollment begins; focus on subsidy lapse risk and exchange stability |
| Mon, Nov. 3 | Federal judiciary expected to curtail operations absent new funding |
| Wed, Nov. 5 | House members scheduled to return; potential procedural votes on limited funding measures |
| Fri, Nov. 7 | Third consecutive missed paycheck for most unpaid civilian employees |
| Week of Nov. 10 | Expected Senate push for a bipartisan “mini CR” narrowly focused on pay and benefits restoration |
Political Outlook
Despite rising public frustration, negotiations remain at a stalemate.
- Senate Democrats continue to demand inclusion of premium subsidy extensions and Medicaid protections.
- House Republicans are divided between a faction seeking a clean CR and a bloc insisting on long-term spending cuts.
- Moderates from both parties are discussing a “short-term bridge deal” through Thanksgiving to reopen select agencies, but leadership remains noncommittal.
The White House is under pressure to find off-ramps, though administration officials have indicated no willingness to accept partial reopening bills without health policy guarantees.
Takeaway
With over a month of halted operations, missed paychecks, and widening economic damage, the 2025 shutdown has evolved into a sustained governance crisis. Each additional week without resolution compounds risks for federal agencies, contractors, and communities reliant on federal funding streams.
Organizations should continue to plan for an extended disruption through mid-November, monitor congressional maneuvering closely, and communicate with federal partners regarding contingency operations, reimbursement delays, and grant administration impacts.
9 AM October 24, 2025
Overview
The federal government shutdown has now entered its 24th day, and still no funding deal has materialized. The impasse between Congress and the White House remains deeply entrenched with major sticking points around spending caps, health-insurance subsidy extensions, and Medicaid funding. Many observers now believe the disruption may last well into November, as typical pressure levers have yet to yield a breakthrough.
Developments This Week
- The United States Senate again blocked multiple bills this week aimed at delivering paychecks to federal workers and contractors: a GOP-sponsored bill to pay essential federal employees failed 54-45, and two Democratic bills to pay all federal workers were also blocked.
- According to recent briefings, federal civilian workers are projected to miss their first full paycheck this week, escalating the economic and political urgency of the standoff.
- The looming risk of delayed benefit programs (such as food assistance) and contracting slowdowns in federal-dependent local economies is increasingly seen by Hill staff as the next likely trigger point for a shift in negotiations.
- With the military continuing to get paid via emergency Pentagon appropriations, the unpaid civilian workforce is now at the center of the pressure cooker, highlighting the growing gap between “essential paid” and “essential unpaid.”
Agency and Workforce Impacts
- Agencies are continuing to expand their contingency measures, shifting from short-term furloughs to formal Reduction-in-Force (RIF) preparation, especially for contract and temporary staff whose funding has lapsed.
- The federal judiciary signaled this week that without immediate supplemental funding it will have to pause non-essential operations imminently.
- Numerous civilian employees are now entering the third pay cycle without compensation, and service contractors in key swing districts are reporting increasing financial stress, raising real-world risks of consumer and housing instability linked to the shutdown.
Economic and Operational Toll
- Daily economic losses are deepening. New data suggest the cost to the U.S. economy may now exceed $500 million per day, with real risk of measurable GDP impact if the shutdown continues through November.
- Key private-sector ripple effects include: delays in Medicare/Medicaid reimbursements to providers, pauses in federal grant competitions (especially in research and public health), tourism and hospitality losses in regions reliant on federal land and park service operations, and potential food-aid program disruptions looming.
- The buildup to missed civilian pay-checks this week is widely regarded as the most immediate inflection point for mounting pressure on lawmakers.
Impact Calendar — Key Dates Ahead
| Date | Event / Watchpoint |
| Fri, Oct. 24 | First full missed paycheck for many unpaid federal civilian workers begins |
| Thu, Oct. 30 | Expanded public visibility as second missed pay-cycle looms for most unpaid staff |
| Fri, Oct. 31 | Agencies may begin broader contract terminations and RIFs if funding remains stalled |
| Sat, Nov. 1 | Open Enrollment begins for health insurance; premium hikes and subsidy uncertainty may draw media focus |
| Week of Nov. 3 | Possible renewed push in Senate for a short-term continuing resolution; mounting pressure on House to return to session |
Political Outlook
The legislative outlook remains stalled. Senate Democrats continue to insist on including health-insurance subsidy extensions, while House Republicans remain split between going for a clean short-term funding fix and insisting on major policy changes. Internal leadership signals suggest a return to action is unlikely unless civilian workforce pressure escalates significantly.
Moderate members of Congress are quietly discussing “mini-bill” strategies to reopen select agencies, but the risk is that these could actually weaken pressure for a full funding deal if executed prematurely.-
Takeaway
This shutdown is no longer a momentary disruption—it is now an entrenched operational crisis. Government agencies, federal employees, contractors and private organizations are navigating an extended period of uncertainty. The most likely catalyst for movement appears to be unpaid civilian workers missing major pay-cycles, coupled with visible economic ripple effects.
Organizations that rely on federal funding, contracts, reimbursements or partnerships should now operate under the assumption that the shutdown will extend through the end of October and likely into November, and should adjust plans accordingly.
October 10
Overview
We are now on Day 17 of the federal government shutdown, with no agreement in sight. The stalemate between the White House and congressional Republicans continues over policy riders, spending caps, and Medicaid-related funding provisions. Despite intermittent staff-level discussions, no bipartisan deal has emerged, and the latest signals suggest the impasse could stretch well into November.
While essential operations continue, agencies are entering deeper rounds of furloughs, hiring freezes, and Reduction-in-Force (RIF) preparations, marking a shift from short-term shutdown management to longer-term contingency planning.
Developments This Week
NDAA Vote Overshadows Shutdown Debate
The Senate this week advanced the FY 2026 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) on a bipartisan 74–25 vote, underscoring the chamber’s ability to move “must-pass” legislation even amid the shutdown. However, the House has not yet set a date to take up the bill for debate or a vote. Speaker Mike Johnson reiterated that the chamber will not reconvene until a broader funding framework is reached, effectively halting legislative business beyond defense and emergency appropriations.
No New Negotiating Channel Established
Hill staff report that no formal talks are taking place between Senate and House leadership teams. Informal outreach by moderate Republicans and the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus has not yet produced a viable off-ramp. Aides note that the next natural pressure point will arrive at the end of October, when:
• Federal employees miss their second paycheck (October 30)
• Open Enrollment season begins on November 1, drawing attention to health-insurance premium increases
Shutdown Expected to Extend Beyond October
With the military continuing to receive pay under the September defense exemption, Hill insiders increasingly believe the shutdown will extend into November. Economic and political pressure from unpaid civilian workers is now viewed as the most likely catalyst for renewed negotiations, particularly as federal employees begin missing mortgage and rent payments and contracting delays ripple through local economies in key districts.
Agency and Workforce Impacts
Layoffs and RIF Notices
Federal agencies have begun issuing formal Reduction-in-Force notices to temporary and contract employees whose project funding has lapsed. These early steps, rare even during extended shutdowns, signal mounting fiscal strain within departments such as:
• HHS – Pausing non-critical grants and clinical research reviews; CDC data monitoring further curtailed
• EPA – 85 percent of staff furloughed; enforcement actions paused
• DOI and USDA – Expanded RIF notifications for seasonal workers and contractors in national parks and food inspection units
• HUD and Education – Backlogged grant disbursements now exceeding two weeks
Judiciary and Transportation
The federal judiciary expects to exhaust operational reserves by early next week (October 21), forcing courts to delay most civil proceedings. FAA and TSA continue to experience scattered staffing shortages, causing minor travel disruptions.
Public Institutions
The Smithsonian museums and National Zoo officially closed to the public this week, with the Zoo citing an inability to sustain animal-care staffing without outside donations by month’s end.
Economic and Operational Toll
The Congressional Budget Office now estimates daily economic losses near $500 million, driven by halted contract payments and consumer spending declines in the D.C. metro area and federal enclaves nationwide. The Federal Reserve has warned that GDP growth could fall by up to 0.2 percentage points per week if the shutdown extends into November.
Private-sector ripple effects are emerging in the form of:
• Suspended SBA loan processing and federal contracting
• Delays in Medicare and Medicaid reimbursements for hospitals and providers
• Pauses in federal grant competitions across HHS and NIH
• Tourism losses in national park gateway communities
| Date | Key Event / Watchpoint |
| Fri, Oct. 18 | Judiciary and EPA furlough thresholds reached; agencies may begin emergency reassignments |
| Mon, Oct. 20–21 | Judiciary operating funds exhausted without supplemental appropriation |
| Thu, Oct. 30 | Second missed paycheck for most civilian employees; increased media and constituent pressure expected |
| Fri, Oct. 31 | Agencies authorized to initiate broader RIFs and contract terminations |
| Sat, Nov. 1 | Open Enrollment begins; ACA premium changes and subsidy lapse warnings gain media attention |
| Week of Nov. 3 | Possible Senate push for a short-term CR; pressure intensifies on House to return for vote |
Political Outlook
Despite growing frustration, there are no indications of imminent movement. Senate Democrats remain united behind a clean continuing resolution, while House Republicans insist on policy concessions and discretionary spending cuts. Some leadership staff now privately acknowledge that a mid-November or even post-Thanksgiving reopening is plausible if no new external event shifts incentives.
Moderates in both chambers are exploring limited “mini-bills” to fund specific agencies such as Defense, Transportation, and Veterans Affairs, but those efforts face resistance from both ends of the ideological spectrum, who fear it would relieve political pressure for a broader deal.
Takeaway
The shutdown is deepening and normalizing, with federal agencies beginning to plan for structural workforce reductions rather than short-term furloughs. Absent a new political incentive, such as widespread missed paychecks or public backlash over open-enrollment disruptions, the path to reopening remains unlikely before mid-November.
Organizations reliant on federal partnerships, grants, or reimbursements should anticipate delays extending into mid- to late November and prepare accordingly.
October 10, 2025
Overview
We are now on Day 10 of the federal government shutdown, which began at 12:01 a.m. EDT on October 1 after Congress failed to pass a continuing resolution or full-year appropriations. The political impasse between the White House and Congress shows few signs of breaking ahead of the holiday weekend.
While essential federal functions continue, most non-essential operations remain suspended, and new furlough rounds are expanding across multiple agencies. The Senate adjourned Thursday evening and will not return until Tuesday, October 14, making further action unlikely this weekend.
Developments This Week
Congressional Stalemate:
The Senate again failed to advance a “clean” stopgap bill (54–45), its seventh failed vote. House Republicans continue to push a package with spending cuts and policy riders Democrats oppose. No new negotiations are scheduled until next week.
Speaker Johnson’s Announcement:
Late Thursday, Speaker Mike Johnson announced that the House will not reconvene until an agreement is reached to end the shutdown, saying he “will not bring Members back to Washington just to stage more political theater.” The move drew sharp criticism from Senate Democrats and several moderate Republicans, who argue it effectively pauses negotiations and prolongs the disruption.
White House and Pay Guidance:
A White House memo circulating early this week questioned whether furloughed and “excepted” employees are guaranteed back pay once the shutdown ends, a break from longstanding precedent. Speaker Johnson has said Congress “of course” intends to authorize retroactive pay, but the issue remains unresolved.
In a more aggressive step, the President authorized agencies to begin formal layoff procedures for select contract and temporary employees whose funding lines are fully exhausted, marking the first such move since the 2013 shutdown.
Agency Impacts:
- IRS: Began furloughing ~34,000 staff this week.
- HHS: Operating at reduced staffing; NIH grant reviews and CDC surveillance work remain paused.
- Smithsonian & National Zoo: Closing to the public Sunday, Oct. 12 as reserve funds are depleted.
- FAA: Minor delays due to stretched scheduling; safety-critical staff remain on duty.
- Judiciary: Reports it can sustain operations only through early next week without supplemental funding.
Economic Toll:
The Congressional Budget Office continues to estimate losses of roughly $400 million per day in foregone wages and output. Credit unions and state programs have begun offering emergency loans to impacted workers.
Missed Pay Periods & Military Impact
The first missed paycheck for most federal workers and military personnel is expected next week (mid-October).
- Furloughed employees have not received pay since September 30.
- “Excepted” workers (including TSA, Border Patrol, and active-duty military) continue working without pay.
- Approximately 1.7 million military members are projected to miss a full pay cycle if no funding is enacted.
The uncertainty surrounding retroactive pay has added new stress for households already relying on savings or short-term credit.
| Date | Key Event / Watchpoint |
| Monday, Oct. 13 (Columbus Day) | Federal holiday—furloughed employees remain unpaid; limited agency operations. |
| Tuesday, Oct. 14 | Senate reconvenes; potential attempt at short-term CR or piecemeal agency bills. |
| Mid-Week (Oct. 15–17) | Missed paychecks hit; public pressure expected to intensify. |
| Late Week | Possible movement on back-pay language or “essential services” mini-funding packages. |
Outlook
Pressure is building on both sides, but no clear resolution path exists. The White House insists on restoring recent Medicaid and health-insurance subsidy funding in any deal; GOP leadership continues to reject those terms.
Absent compromise early next week, agencies may begin issuing secondary furloughs or halting contract payments. Analysts note the longer this continues, the greater the backlog and restart costs once funding resumes.
Takeaway
We are entering a critical phase: by this time next week, hundreds of thousands of federal employees and service members may miss a full pay period, intensifying political and economic pressure. If precedent holds, retroactive pay will eventually be authorized, but until Congress acts, the situation remains fluid.
October 1, 2025
The federal government officially entered a shutdown at 12:01 a.m. EDT on October 1, 2025, after Congress failed to pass a funding measure to sustain operations into the new fiscal year.
- Scope of the shutdown
Most agencies that rely on annual appropriations have suspended non-essential operations. Some independent and statutorily funded entities (for example, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau) continue limited operations because their funding is not tied to the annual budget process.
- Furloughs and unpaid essential work
Hundreds of thousands of federal employees are being furloughed, while essential personnel will continue working without pay. The Congressional Budget Office estimates the daily cost to the economy could reach approximately $400 million in lost wages and output.
- Health, science, and public health agencies
The Department of Health and Human Services expects to furlough roughly 41% of its workforce. At the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, significant reductions in staffing will hamper communications, oversight, and surveillance. The National Institutes of Health anticipates suspending much of its research operations, peer-review processes, and grant reviews.
- Judiciary under strain
Although courts will still hear constitutional and critical cases, many court staff—including probation officers, clerks, and support personnel—may be furloughed. The judiciary warns it may not be able to sustain full operations past October 3 without additional funding or legislative action.
- Services that remain, and those disrupted
Core national security, law enforcement, and public safety functions continue, though often at reduced capacity. Programs like Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid are not expected to be disrupted, though beneficiaries may face delays in ancillary services. Many public services, including national park operations, routine inspections, and grant-making, are largely suspended.
- Length of Last Shutdown
The last major U.S. government shutdown happened in 2018–2019, stretching 35 days from December 22, 2018, to January 25, 2019, making it the longest in U.S. history. That shutdown was triggered by a standoff over President Trump’s demand for $5.7 billion in funding for a border wall, which Democrats refused to approve as part of the spending bills. As pressure mounted, Trump relented and agreed to a stopgap funding bill, ending the shutdown.
- Length of Current Shutdown
Negotiations are ongoing but there’s no clear path yet: Republicans, though holding both chambers, couldn’t marshal the 60 Senate votes needed for a stopgap, while Democrats are pressing to pair funding with health-insurance subsidy extensions and reversal of recent Medicaid cuts, terms GOP leaders reject. Analysts split on timing: some expect a resolution within days to a couple of weeks, but given the policy stakes, including healthcare subsidies and structural agency changes, the shutdown could persist longer absent a compromise. In short, there is no consensus on length; it hinges on whether leadership can break the impasse soon.
Takeaway: The shutdown is now reality. Federal contractors, grantees, and state and local program partners should plan for immediate service interruptions, delay in reimbursements or payments, and ongoing uncertainty until Congress and the White House reach a resolution.
Federal Nominations
Senate Republicans finalized a rule change to accelerate the voting process for President Trump’s federal nominees. The Senate voted 51-44 to adopt a resolution allowing nominees to be considered in groups rather than individually. Currently, 150 nominees await floor consideration.
Senate Democrats argued the change undermines the Senate’s ‘advice and consent’ role, while Republicans contend Democrats intentionally slowed the nomination process.
Typically, the Senate requires unanimous consent to speed floor consideration, with any one Senator able to stall proceedings.
Takeaway: This change is expected to expedite confirmations and free Senate floor time for advancing legislation.
Special Elections
On September 9, a special election in Virginia’s 11th Congressional District was held to fill the vacancy left by Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-VA-11). James Walkinshaw (D) defeated Stewart Whitson (R) with 74.8% of the vote and was sworn in on September 10.
In Arizona’s 7th Congressional District, Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva (D), daughter of former Representative Raul Grijalva, defeated Republican businessowner Daniel Buterez with 70.6% of the vote. She is expected to be sworn in on October 7, when the House returns from recess.
With these results, the House balance shifts to 219 Republicans and 214 Democrats.
Upcoming special elections:
- Texas’ 18th Congressional District – November 4, 2025
- Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District – December 2, 2025
Future Senate elections to note:
- Ohio Senate – November 3, 2026
- Florida Senate – November 3, 2026
Takeaway: These elections slightly tighten the House margin, while upcoming contests could further shape control heading into 2026.
Redistricting
Several states are considering redrawing their voting maps ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, including Texas, Missouri, Florida, Indiana, California, New York, Maryland, Illinois, Ohio, Louisiana, Wisconsin, and Utah.
States that pass new maps will likely face prolonged court challenges over validity and fairness.
Takeaway: Court battles over redistricting could delay candidate filings and impact the balance of power in 2026.
