Written by Kellen PA staff, the Capitol Compass is a monthly newsletter offered to clients as a Kellen product. Read the Special Edition Shutdown Showdown Update below.
Where Things Stand
As of Friday evening, the House was trying to advance a clean continuing resolution (CR) to fund the government until March 14 and avert a shutdown. The short-term funding bill keeps federal agencies open until mid-March, includes $100 billion in disaster relief aid, $30 billion in aid for farmers and a one-year extension of current agriculture policy. The debt ceiling was not included in the final package.
The House passed the clean CR. The final vote was 366-34-1. 170 Republicans voted for the bill, 196 Democrats voted for the bill, 34 Republicans voted against the bill and one Democrat voted “present” on the package. The bill needed a two-thirds majority for passage.
The bill will now be sent to the Senate for further consideration, where it is likely to pass and avoid the government shutdown.
How We Got Here
Earlier this week, Speaker Johnson unveiled a continuing resolution (CR) that would have funded the government through March 14, extended farm bill programs, and provided more than $100 billion in disaster aid. The bill was met with widespread disapproval from a significant number of House Republicans, as well as President-elect Trump and some of his close aides, threatening a government shutdown if spending was not authorized by 12:00AM Friday, December 20.
When Republicans take the majority in 2025, they will be free to pursue their full agenda. However, they do not want to provide Democrats any opportunities to accomplish their own policy goals. For Democrats, the CR represented their last opportunity to influence major spending legislation. Criticism of Johnson’s CR has been characterized as a giveaway to Democrats, and Trump called for an increase or elimination in the debt ceiling. The debt ceiling was never a part of any funding packages and surprised lawmakers.
The debt ceiling is the limit Congress sets to determine how much the federal government can borrow to pay its bills. It does not authorize any new spending, but raising or eliminating the debt ceiling now would enable the Trump Administration and the next Congress to pass legislation unrestricted by spending limits.
Under a previous bipartisan plan passed by Congress last year, both sides agreed to suspend the debt ceiling through the first quarter of 2025. The debt ceiling will have to be addressed early in 2025 by the next administration, making it a priority for the incoming Administration and Congress. While the debt ceiling is only suspended through the end of the year, the Treasury Department can take what is known as “extraordinary measures” to prevent the nation from defaulting on its debt and buy time for a new deal to be struck in the next few months.
Speaker Johnson had promised to abide by the House’s 72-hour rule which requires giving members three days to review the legislation before a vote. Due to the Friday deadline, a bill will have to be passed under suspension of the rules. Voting under suspension of the rules requires a two-thirds supermajority for passage, meaning that Democrats would have to support the bill.
Impact of a Shutdown
In the event of a shutdown, government agencies and programs that are funded by the annual appropriations process must cease their activities, other than certain activities that are considered essential. During a shutdown, many federal employees are “furloughed,” or temporarily prohibited from working, while others are considered exempt and are able to keep working to conduct necessary activities.
In the short term, most activities and interactions with the federal government should be minimally affected any the shutdown. However, if the shutdown extends for a longer period of time (i.e., more than a few weeks), members should expect to see additional disruption in federal services and potentially timely access to payments. Interactions with the federal government are likely to be slowed down or delayed, such as technical assistance from agency staff the development and promulgation of new regulations and policies, hosting of webinars and other informational communications, and more.
Administrative Transition
After the election, the Trump transition team was formed and immediately started working to fill the cabinet and other key positions in the White House and federal agencies.
Key nominations for so far include:
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr: Secretary of Health and Human Services
- Martin Makary: Food & Drug Administration Commissioner
- Mehmet Oz: Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Administrator
- Pam Bondi: Attorney General
- Brooke Rollins: Secretary of Agriculture
- Lor Chavez-DeRemer: Secretary of Labor
- Sean Duffy: Transportation Secretary
- Rep. Mike Waltz (R-FL-06): National Security Advisor
- Rep. Elisa Stefanik (R-NY-21): United Nations Ambassador
Rep. Matt Gaetz was initially nominated to serve as Attorney General but withdrew, as he did not have the votes in the Senate for confirmation. He resigned from his congressional seat amid growing sexual misconduct allegations after his failed nomination.
Positions immediately below the top-level offices will take months for the administration to fill. In addition to staffing, the Administration is expected to issue a slew of executive orders related to campaign talking points. The Trump White House’s policies and goals will be made clear over the next few months as offices are filled and EOs are released. By March, the president’s budget will be published, which will serve as a political statement and outline policy goals.
Changes to Congress
Congress has started preparations for the transition from the 118th to the 119th Congressional Session by selecting their leadership. House leadership will largely remain the same, while the Senate sees some shakeup.
Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-LA-04), Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA-01), and Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-MN-06) are expected to continue in their current offices. Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY-08) and Minority Whip Katherine Clark (D-MA-05) will also continue in their positions. The continuing resolution funding debate has upset some Republican members and may threaten his leader position. The Speaker vote is expected on January 3, 2025.
Now that Republicans have flipped the Senate, Sen. John Thune (R-SD) will serve as Senate Majority Leader, replacing Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) from the top position. Sen. John Barrasso (R-WY) will serve as Majority Whip. Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) will serve as Minority Leader, and Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL) will be the Minority Whip.
When Congress convenes in January, Republicans will hold a slight majority of 219 seats, while Democrats will hold 215 seats. The Republican majority will sightly change, however, as Rep. Mike Waltz (R-FL-06) intends to resign Jan. 20 to become Trump’s national security adviser. Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY-21) also plans to resign if confirmed as ambassador to the United Nations. Rep. Matt Gaetz has already resigned from his seat.
If all seats remain vacant at once, the Republicans will only have a 217-215 lead. Although the three seats will likely be filled by Republicans in upcoming special elections, the elections will not be until April. Republicans will have a one-vote swing margin, requiring near total unity from the Republican House Caucus to pass legislation during the first quarter of 2025. Look for the next edition of Capitol Compass for an outline of Republican priorities and plans to pass their agenda.
