Disclaimer: Many of the developments discussed below are fluid and may change rapidly. The information is relevant and accurate as of January 30, 2026.
Congress Nears Funding Agreement but Lapse Still Likely
The Senate is working to advance a six-bill funding package that would fully fund most of the government for Fiscal Year (FY) 2026, while pairing it with a two-week continuing resolution for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) to allow additional time for Immigrations and Customs Enforcement (ICE) reform demands by Senate Democrats. Despite a tentative agreement between President Trump and Senate Democrats, a short-term funding lapse remains likely because any Senate passed deal must return to the House, which is not expected to reconvene before Monday. The delay has triggered contingency planning across several Medicare programs, with hospital at home and in home acute care providers preparing to suspend operations as early as this weekend. Senate Majority Leader John Thune adjourned the chamber without scheduling votes ahead of the deadline, and internal GOP divisions combined with Speaker Mike Johnson’s slim and tightening House majority continue to complicate final passage, increasing the risk of a weekend partial shutdown.
Where Things Stand
The 6-bill package up for consideration by the Senate funds Defense, Financial Services, Homeland Security, Labor-HHS-Education, National Security-State, and Transportation-HUD.
FY 2026 has been approved for:
- Agriculture-FDA
- Legislative Banch
- Military Construction-Veterans Affairs
- Commerce-Justice-Science
- Energy & Water Development
- Interior-Environment
Affordable Care Act (ACA) Subsidy Negotiations Stall
Separately, ACA premium tax credits are not currently part of the FY 2026 appropriations package. Senate Democrats have rejected a Republican proposal to extend enhanced ACA subsidies, signaling that no bipartisan deal exists at this time. Democratic negotiators are awaiting further analysis from the Senate Finance Committee and have raised concerns about income caps, health savings account provisions, implementation changes, and additional policy riders.
Takeaway: Congress is close to a funding deal that would fully fund most agencies for FY 2026, but disagreements over DHS policy and House timing make a short-term shutdown increasingly likely. Health care programs, particularly hospital-at-home and telehealth, face immediate operational risk despite bipartisan support for long-term extensions. The next pressure point will be whether lawmakers can resolve DHS funding before the lapse extends beyond the weekend.
Redistricting Fights Continue in the Courts
State Republicans and Democrats continue measures implement or contest new Congressional maps ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. In California, the Trump administration is asking the Supreme Court to block the new Congressional map that was approved by California voters in November 2025. This map would create 5 new Democrat leaning districts for the US House of Representatives.
Democrats in Virginia are moving to create a new Congressional map to add more Democrat leaning seats for the midterm elections. Democrat state legislators passed a constitutional amendment to allow the party to create new Congressional lines before 2030. However, a Virginia judge blocked the amendment from reaching the voters and said that Democrats improperly convened for their special session. The ruling is now being appealed by Virginia Democrats signaling the start a lengthy legal process.
Governor Ron Desantis (R-FL) announced that he is calling a special session in April 2026 to redraw Florida’s Congressional map. A new map could add 5 potential Republican seats for the midterm elections.
Takeaway: Several states are redrawing their Congressional maps ahead of the 2026 midterm elections in an effort to win control of the House of Representatives. However, all efforts so far to redraw district maps have been met with legal opposition by the opposing state political parties.
Lookahead to 2026 Midterms
Currently, Republicans control both chambers in Congress. The GOP has a slim 218-213 majority in the House of Representatives and a 53-47 majority in the Senate. Both chambers are expected to have a significant shakeup for the midterm elections. So far, 49 Representatives and 9 Senators are not seeking re-election.
In the House:
- 13 Democrats and 9 Republicans are retiring
- 7 Democrats and 8 Republicans are running for Senate
- 1 Democrat and 10 Republicans are running for Governor
- 1 Republican is running for state attorney general
In the Senate:
- 4 Democrats and 4 Republicans are retiring
- 2 Democrats and 2 Republicans are running for Governor (Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL) is retiring to run for Governor in Alabama)
Upcoming Special Elections:
- New Jersey’s 11th Congressional District on April 16, 2026
- Georgia’s 14th Congressional District on March 10, 2026
- California’s 1st Congressional District on August 4, 2026
- Ohio Senate on November 3, 2026
- Florida Senate on November 3, 2026
Takeaway: The 2026 midterm elections will be closely watched as Republicans look to widen their majority and advance their agenda and Democrats look to flip the majority and contest President Trump. The Democrats face an up-hill battle to regain the Senate and their path to retake the House will be hotly contested. Gaining the majority in either chamber will be critical as a second reconciliation bill and impeachments of Trump Administration officials are discussed.
